A detailed analysis
The European EMS Industry
Many years of intensive analysis of assemblers of electronic assemblies (OEM, ODM, EMS) for a German industry association and endless discussions about the size of the German and European markets have led Weiss Engineering to recalculate the statistics of the EMS industry.
Existing market reports defined the EMS market in Europe at approximately 28 billion euros, with Eastern Europe supposedly accounting for 2/3 of the production volume. Fifteen years of experience working with market figures have reduced these figures to absurdity. In addition, the growth statements were extremely influenced by the American market and were not plausible.
In three years of work, Weiss Engineering identified over 2,230 EMS companies in Europe, as well as another 76 EMS companies in the Middle East, Israel and the Maghreb states. In addition to the contact details, sales and employee numbers, and in some cases other figures from the balance sheet and the profit and loss statement, were recorded. Sales were recorded retroactively back to 2013 and balance sheet data retroactively up to 2014. The basis was, on the one hand, the country-specific company registers and, on the other hand, fee-based databases. This meant that over 85% of the European production volume could be recorded directly. For smaller companies, other key figures sometimes had to be used as an aid to calculating sales. However, the possible error in this auxiliary calculation is minimal in relation to the total production volume.
Existing market reports defined the EMS market in Europe at around EUR 28 billion, with Eastern Europe accounting for 2/3 of the production volume. Twelve years of experience in working with the market figures made these figures absurd. Moreover, the growth statements were extremely influenced by the American market and not plausible. The Project E³MS (European Electronics Engineering & Manufacturing Services) was created.
In three years of work, Weiss Engineering identified more than 2160 EMS companies in Europe, as well as about 70 EMS companies in the Middle East, Israel and the Maghreb countries. In addition to contact details, sales and employee numbers, and in some cases other figures from the balance sheet and income statement were recorded. Revenues were recorded retroactively up to 2013, balance sheet data retroactively to 2014. The basis was on the one hand the country-specific company registers, on the other hand paid databases. This enabled more than 85% of the European production volume to be directly recorded. For smaller companies, other key figures had to be used as tools for calculating turnover. However, the possible error in this auxiliary invoice is minimal in terms of the total production volume.
The individual sales and other key figures were added up for over 2,230 EMS companies to arrive at the production volume in Europe. The division into Eastern and Western Europe contradicted the figures previously published in the press and market studies.
Our forecast jump in sales of over 15% for 2022 has leveled off at around 13.9% after the evaluations for 2022 have been completed. For 2023, there will be a production volume of 57.7 billion euros, a growth of 10.9% compared to 2022. These high growth rates in 2022 and 2023 were caused by the “chip crisis”, which caused artificially inflated demand because of Scaremongering in the market caused OEMs to order far above the real market demand and the warehouses to massively fill up.
For 2024, we currently expect production sales in Europe to be around 56.9 billion euros. This decline is caused by the fact that EMS’s customers still have full warehouses and in the second half of 2023 they put the brakes on, trying to cancel orders or significantly postpone delivery dates. In some cases, this led to a decline in sales for individual companies as early as 2023. However, the majority will experience this in 2024. This has nothing to do with the needs of end customers. There was no hype in 2022 and 2023 due to digitalization, 6G, AI and other nonsensical arguments that individual “experts” had rightly imagined explaining the exorbitant growth in 2022 and 2023. Instead, the scaremongering of the “chip crisis” triggered the bull whip effect, which began with a huge wave of incoming orders. As a result, normal market requirements were massively brought forward and requirements for 2023 were produced in 2022 and 2024 requirements were produced in 2023. The compensation will now take place in 2024 due to customers’ reluctance to order due to overfull warehouses. This is the negative half of the bull whip effect.
Unless someone comes up with the idea of creating an artificial crisis again in 2024, we should be back to somewhat normal conditions in 2025. We can only hope that the industry has learned something from this “crisis”.
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EMS statistics
The 2024 annual statistics of in4ma
Every year we conduct a market survey about the European EMS market. The number of participants has increased steadily over the last seven years, reaching 306 participating EMS companies in 2024 for the analysis of the 2023 calendar year. The questionnaires are returned approximately 4 weeks after the end of the calendar year and each participating company receives a complete ~70-page PDF report free of charge 6-8 weeks after the end of the calendar year. Companies that do not (or cannot) take part in the survey have the opportunity to purchase this report for EUR 690. (see shop)
The total turnover of the reporting companies amounted to 19.8 billion euros for 2023, which corresponds to an enormous increase compared to 2022. These sales account for approximately 35% of all European EMS production.
In the 3rd quarter of each year, the figures from the annual survey are supplemented by current evaluations of the country’s company registers to arrive at an overall picture for Europe and summarized in an approximately 160-page report on EMS Europe. The report was updated at the turn of the year, also includes 220 slides (PDF file) and is available in English until the end of June 2024 at a price of 1,980 euros. (see shop)